By Dr. Maurice Yeates and Dr. Tony Hernandez

Online sales in Canada have been estimated to account for 7.3% of non-auto retail sales in 2015 with baseline projections that will increase to 11.5% by 2020. While it is widely believed that online sales will continue to grow – there is substantial debate over the trajectory of change. Given that Canadian online consumers are often faced with the decision as to whether to purchase from Canadian or US websites, our report focuses on the impact of the US:CDN exchange rate on online (particularly, cross-border) sales in Canada. The report looks at the relationship between exchange rates and cross-border online sales. A series of projections of future growth are outlined based on scenarios of exchange rate change and their impact on Canadian retail sales and square footage discussed.