Simulating the Demand for Consumer Service Space by Type of Delivery System
The spatial structure of the consumer service industry in the GTA, relating to an immediate market population of 5 million, is undergoing major transformation. This arises from the interplay of a variety of complex forces that include - rapid market growth, increasing polycentricism, and implementation of commercial innovations. This monograph explores the use of geo-referenced demand-side (mainly geodemographic) and supply-side (concerning stores/outlets) information to model the future demand for new commercial space in the Toronto region for the 2001-2021 period.
Using SpaceCalc, a land use impact calculator, the future commercial structure of the GTA can be simulated for a variety of retail delivery formats - shopping centres, big boxes, traditional retail streets, the downtown core and e-commerce. It provides a way for addressing the question - "How much more commercial space will the GTA require in the future?".
With the aid of SpacCalc, the sophisticated use can explore a variety of scenarios that are based on varying assumptions that relate to the future supply and demand trends for commercial space in the GTA.